CA-8.4 CA-8.4 Scenario approach
CA-8.4.1
As stated in Section CA-8.1, banks which have a significant level of
options trading activities, or have complexoptions trading strategies, are expected to use more sophisticated methods for measuring and monitoring theoptions risks. Banks with the appropriate capability will be permitted, with the prior approval of the Central Bank, to base the market risk capital charge foroptions portfolios and associatedhedging positions on scenario matrix analysis. Before giving its approval, the Central Bank will closely review the accuracy of the analysis that is constructed. Furthermore, like in the case of internal models, the banks' use of scenario analysis as part of the standardised methodology will also be subject to external validation, and to those of the qualitative standards listed in Chapter CA-9 which are appropriate given the nature of the business.October 07CA-8.4.2
The scenario matrix analysis involves specifying a fixed range of changes in the
option portfolio's risk factors and calculating changes in the value of theoption portfolio at various points along this 'grid' or 'matrix'. For the purpose of calculating the capital charge, the bank will revalue theoption portfolio using matrices for simultaneous changes in theoption 's underlying rate or price and in the volatility of that rate or price. A different matrix is set up for each individual underlying as defined in Section CA-8.3 above. As an alternative, in respect of interest rateoptions , banks which are significant traders in suchoptions are permitted to base the calculation on a minimum of six sets of time-bands. When using this alternative method, not more than three of the time-bands as defined in Chapter CA-4 should be combined into any one set.October 07CA-8.4.3
The first dimension of the matrix involves a specified range of changes in the
option 's underlying rate or price. The Central Bank has set the range for each risk Category as follows:(a) Interest rate related instruments - The range for interest rates is consistent with the assumed changes in yield set out in Section CA-4.5. Those banks using the alternative method of grouping time-bands into sets, as explained in Paragraph CA-8.4.2, should use, for each set of time-bands, the highest of the assumed changes in yield applicable to the individual time-bands in that group. If, for example, the time-bands 3 to 4 years, 4 to 5 years and 5 to 7 years are combined, the highest assumed change in yield of these three bands would be 0.75 which would be applicable to that set.(b) For equity instruments, the range is ±8%.(c) For foreign exchange and gold, the range is ±8%.(d) Forcommodities, the range is ±15%,For all risk categories, at least seven observations (including the current observation) should be used to divide the range into equally spaced intervals.
October 07CA-8.4.4
The second dimension of the matrix entails a change in the volatility of the underlying rate or price. A single change in the volatility of the underlying rate or price equal to a shift in volatility of ±25% is applied.
October 07CA-8.4.5
The Central Bank will closely monitor the need to reset the parameters for the amounts by which the price of the underlying instrument and volatility must be shifted to form the rows and columns of the scenario matrix. For the time being, the parameters set, as above, only reflect general market risk (see Paragraphs CA-8.4.10 to CA-8.4.12).
October 07CA-8.4.6
After calculating the matrix, each cell contains the net profit or loss of the
option and the underlyinghedge instrument. The general market risk capital charge for each underlying is then calculated as the largest loss contained in the matrix.October 07CA-8.4.7
In addition to the capital charge calculated as above, the specific risk capital charge is determined separately by multiplying the delta-equivalent of each
option position by the specific risk weights set out in Chapters CA-4 through CA-7.October 07CA-8.4.8
To summarise, capital requirements for, say
OTC options , using the scenario approach are as follows:(a)Counterparty risk capital charges (on purchasedoptions only), calculated in accordance with the credit risk regulations; PLUS(b) Specific risk capital charges (calculated as explained in Paragraph CA-8.4.7); PLUS(c) Directional and volatility risk capital charges (i.e., the worst case loss from a given scenario matrix analysis).October 07CA-8.4.9
Banks doing business in certain classes of complex exotic
options (e.g. barrieroptions involving discontinuities in deltas etc.), or inoptions at the money that are close to expiry, are required to use either the scenario approach or the internal models approach, both of which can accommodate more detailed revaluation approaches. The Central Bank expects the concerned banks to work with it closely to produce an agreed method, within the framework of these rules. If a bank uses scenario matrix analysis, it must be able to demonstrate that no substantially larger loss could fall between the nodes.October 07CA-8.4.10
In drawing up the delta-plus and the scenario approaches, the Central Bank's present set of rules do not attempt to capture specific risk other than the delta-related elements (which are captured as explained in Paragraphs CA-8.4.7 and CA-8.4.11). The Central Bank recognises that introduction of those other specific risk elements will make the measurement framework much more complex. On the other hand, the simplifying assumptions used in these rules will result in a relatively conservative treatment of certain
options positions.October 07CA-8.4.11
In addition to the
options risks described earlier in this Chapter, the Central Bank is conscious of the other risks also associated withoptions , e.g. rho or interest rate risk (the rate of change of the value of theoption with respect to the interest rate) and theta (the rate of change of the value of theoption with respect to time). While not proposing a measurement system for those risks at present, the Central Bank expects banks undertaking significantoptions business, at the very least, to monitor such risks closely. Additionally, banks will be permitted to incorporate rho into their capital calculations for interest rate risk, if they wish to do so.October 07